The other day, I posted that the incentives were develop for Paul Ryan to exceed something. He had to halt the vote to avoid losing. What happened?
With observe to
Thursday's postal service on strategic incentives, in that place are 2 possibilities: strategic mistakes, or I missed something. I'm going amongst about of both.
First, my mistake. What I didn't component into the incentive construction was every bit follows. It was pretty clear every bit of Th that zip would survive signed into law, in addition to that was component subdivision of my reasoning. Passing something inwards the House, then, simply would receive got dragged out a doomed process. Better to halt it fast. I didn't component that in, in addition to I should have, thus that was where I went incorrect inwards assessing everyone's strategic incentives.
As for strategic mistakes, um... [cough, cough] Freedom Caucus. These are the people who drove John Boehner from office, in addition to can't convey yeah for an answer. As I wrote repeatedly before inwards the process, if the Republicans were a normal party, in 1 trial Susan Collins introduced her mouth amongst Bill Cassidy, that would receive got been it. They would receive got run the show, the mode Max Baucus did on the ACA inwards 2010. But, the Freedom Caucus has an all-or-nothing mentality that prevents them from accepting... damn close anything. They are not, inwards whatever reasonable sense, strategic actors because they don't genuinely select actions based on the
consequences of those actions. They select actions based on how they perceive the purity of those actions. They would rather relieve Obamacare through inaction than vote for anything that isn't their absolute perfect ideal policy. They are fifty-fifty dumber than Donald J Fucking Trump. Yes, allow this sink in. Donald Trump understood the basic strategic request that yous can't allow the perfect survive the enemy of the good. The Freedom Caucus can't grasp that point. Compared to the Freedom Caucus, Donald Trump is the vocalization of reason.
Remember, though, that this was e'er going to survive a difficult slog. Prior to Trump's surprise victory, hither is what I had been telling everyone. Once the Supreme Court ruled in addition to Obama won inwards 2012, I sentiment Obamacare was hither to stay. It is non politically viable to convey fiscal benefits away from millions of people, in addition to that's what a repeal would receive got been. Ted Cruz understood this when he pushed for the 2013 shutdown. The subsidies in addition to Medicaid expansion kicked inwards the next year, thus he knew that the end chance, which wasn't
really a chance, was to block them before they kicked in. That's why he pushed the shutdown. It was a scam because the shutdown was a doomed system to brand institution Republicans await bad when they caved, but Cruz understood the politics. He knew that yous couldn't convey benefits away in 1 trial they kicked in.
I started to inquiry things when Trump won. Perhaps Republicans mightiness translate Trump's victory every bit a sign that they could brazen
anything out. After all, the guy brags nearly sexual assault, lusts later on his ain daughter, makes fun of a disabled reporter, etc., in addition to he all the same won yesteryear simply never giving an inch on anything. Not that he has thus much every bit an inch, but, ya' know. The request is that Trump won fifty-fifty though he broke all of the rules. Perhaps, I commented here, that would convince Republicans they
could rescind benefits in addition to teach away amongst it. Just await at what Trump got away amongst doing...
As it turned out, no. Social Security. Medicare. Medicaid. Obamacare. (Cash assistance to the hapless inwards the course of educational activity of AFDC/TANF or unemployment benefits were never large or consistent). There receive got been 4 major programs created to render fiscal benefits to large segments of the population. Despite regular dreams in addition to attempts to scale them dorsum yesteryear conservatives, none receive got ever been repealed or significantly curtailed. That tape remains unbroken. Why? Because it is every bit good unsafe to convey away fiscal benefits. There are plenty of House in addition to Senate Republicans who would repeal Obamacare, but in that place are plenty who wouldn't to halt the party. Somehow, that's e'er true. George W. Bush wanted to privatize Social Security inwards 2005. Whatever happened to that plan? Oh, right. You run across my point.
